The Death of the Public Switched Telephone Network
Is dial tone going away? What do you think?
OSP Magazine
When I read the trade magazines everyone is convinced that the landline is a thing of the past. Wireless is the way to go. The Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) is a dinosaur, expensive to maintain, and it should go away. Internet Protocol (IP) is the answer.
The Copper Infrastructure
Everything I read is either a half truth or something that will happen in the future. In 1977, fiber cables were introduced in the telephone industry. Within a few months, many believed that paired copper conductors were considered obsolete and managers were running around telling everyone that copper was a dead issue. Guess what? Copper infrastructure didn't shrink -- it grew.
In a column written in June of 1991, I predicted that copper distribution plant would go away in the year 2015. I think that I am wrong. I believe it will occur in the year 2025. In the meantime, copper is here and is the basis of services from analog PSTN to IPTV. This 170 billion dollar copper base is in place, and in this time of a worldwide grave economic situation, it is paid for.
Fiber
No doubt, fiber is a good thing for the long hall. Fiber-fed remotes have been eliminating feeder cables for years and the Verizon push is fiber-to-the-home. For new construction, fiber-to-the-home is a slam dunk. Verizon's business plan is a high-speed fiber broadband network (FiOS,) and for all practical purposes, they have abandoned the copper infrastructure even though they are serving customers and the customers are paying for it.
AT&T uses fiber for the long hall and paired copper conductors for their U-verse Triple Play service. My contention is Fiber-to-the-Node (FTTN) for existing construction and Fiber-to-the Home (FTTH). These are landlines and they are not going away any time soon.
PSTN
The PSTN is being replaced with Voice over IP (VoIP). It has created viable, new business opportunities for companies like Vonage, Skype, Magic Jack, and others who have zero investment in the infrastructure. No matter what you think, VoIP is not free. Mark my words, all end users of bandwidth whether it is landline or wireless will pay for the pipe. The switch from PSTN to IP is a given but it will happen over a period of years.
In the mean time, take care of your copper, fiber, and your PSTN, and properly maintain it instead of treating it like it is a red-headed stepchild. What is your input?
What do you think? How long will copper continue?
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The Death of the PSTN/Copper
While business cases for extending fiber into residential sub-divisions and urban areas are getting a passing grade, many areas have yet to see DSL, much less fiber. However, there is one copper element that seems to miss any attention at all: copper serving businesses. In large metro areas, thousands copper pairs already teather multi-story buildings to the local central office. In many cases, this has been supported by some fiber/remote pairgain type technology, but no one is ripping out thousands of pairs of copper to these multi-story buildings. In fact, the fiber is more to provide high-speed transport services (10/100/1000 gbps IP, etc.) However, this is still not my point. There are millions of small/medium businesses scattered across the "serving area". Some of these clump together, but most are spread by blocks if not miles. There is no payback to run fiber into every small/medium business, as they tend to move around, open & close, and just plain go out of business. These small businesses account for hundreds of thousands of "PLE" circuits- circuits for foreign exchange dialtone or a miriad of special service circuits including dozens of types of analog and digital (sub-rate) circuits (64/56k, etc.). Ask any telco and they will tell you (if they are honest), sub-rate (DS0) special service circuits are generally declining use, but that still leaves hundreds of thousands (actually millions) of circuits that will never be converted to IP and will likely remain on copper. The US government and her children (DoD, DoT, etc.) account for a significant base of special sevice circuits. The list aslo includes banks, gas stations, grocery stores, municiple and utility operations, etc. It is a big number. Yes, it will still take years to replace copper. It will happen, but no where near as quickly as some are hoping. Don't throw away your ScotchLok's and ground wire just yet! I began my Telco career in 1975, and most of the tools I was issued then are still in use today! Daniel B. Burch-