Can service providers meet the explosive demand for Anytime-Anywhere-Everytime bandwidth within their economic constraints? Mobile device manufacturers are constantly introducing new devices that run innovative applications which have an insatiable appetite to devour more and more bandwidth. Vendors are designing their gear to enable the transmission of exabytes instead of terabytes of data. And network operators must now build and operate networks to meet this seemingly never-ending demand of billions of users around the globe and adapt to rapidly changing consumer behavior.

“Our demand for instant communication and information, including access to the data we need when and where we need it, on any mobile device we have access to, is changing the way in which service providers must architect networks and provide services,” says Michael Howard co-founder and principal analyst at Infonetics Research. “The growth in traffic generated by mobile data, which includes video, e-mail, and multiplayer gaming, has relegated voice traffic to a blip on the radar of traffic trends. Traditional networks, built to meet the demands of voice traffic, are no longer adequate. Service providers are scrambling to catch up with the bandwidth explosion resulting from innovations by system manufacturers and application providers without overwhelming themselves with exorbitant capital expenses.”

Where? Everywhere!
End users want Anytime-Anywhere-Everytime Access. Anytime Access generates continuous demand for bandwidth, the result of a connected planet and an always-connected mobile user. Anywhere Access necessitates broader coverage, a result of demand for connectivity, in the rain forest of Costa Rica or in the heart of Shanghai. Everytime Coverage drives reliability, a consequence of reliance on always-connected mobile devices for critical connectivity, whether it is getting directions in the middle of the night or negotiating a multimillion-dollar contract while away from the office. Users also expect the same quality and capabilities on their always-connected mobile devices that they are used to from their tethered computers. These mobile devices go beyond smartphones and Web-gadgets like iPads, Kindles, and connected GPS’s. They also include data cards connected to laptops that make the mobile network feel just like a wired network. The implications of allowing a laptop user to latch on to the mobile network are that the demands placed on a mobile network will be the sum of the demands placed on a wired network and those placed on a wireless network.

A recent study by Cisco showed that worldwide mobile traffic will increase twenty-fold between 2010 and 2014. (See Figure 1.) This growth, combined with the fact that about half of the worlds’ population lives in rural areas, makes the delivery of bandwidth everytime and everywhere even more complex. Complicating things further is a change in definitions of what is considered an urban area. Urban sprawl is leading to the disappearance of boundaries between traditionally segregated residential and business neighborhoods. And as subscribers move between these areas, they expect broadband service wherever they travel.

Figure 1. Global Traffic Growth.

Furthermore, the profile for each country is different. While countries like Germany have approximately 80% of the population living in urban areas, China and India have 80% of the population living in rural areas. And, no matter where people live and work, for carriers who are upgrading or building networks, providing adequate capacity everywhere is critical. Just as important, of course, is the ability of carriers to provide the capacity within its own economic constraints.

Recent announcements by U.S. carriers to move away from unlimited data plans follow in the footsteps of what European carriers have already recognized: the growth in bandwidth consumption does not mirror the growth in revenue associated with that additional usage. This usage increases the cost of operating the current network, amplifying the strain on existing infrastructure, and accelerating the need for carriers to cost effectively upgrade their infrastructure.

The Upgrade Path
The key components of a carrier’s mobile network that are being targeted for upgrades include the equipment that is enabling The Last Mile of service delivery (cell towers) and the infrastructure being used to carry that traffic back to the core network of the operator (backhaul). In order to provide the throughput required to support the use of smart phones, e-readers, and laptop cards, operators continue to migrate from 2G and 3G to 4G and LTE- (or WiMAX) enabled cell sites. A key debate in building cell towers is whether macro cells or micro cells (pico and femto) are a more effective way to manage the explosive growth in bandwidth consumption.

Each technology has its advantages and limitations. The correct answer depends on various factors ranging from population density, local usage patterns, capital availability, existing network infrastructure, and cost. Figure 2 compares some of the key aspects of the technology options being debated.

Figure 2.

“The key debate is not whether macro or micro cells will win, but how the technologies will co-exist,” says Prayerna Raina, information and communication technology research analyst at Frost & Sullivan. (See Figure 3.) Regardless of the technology or vendor chosen, several factors remain true:

• New devices and applications will continue to drive demand for capacity everywhere.
• The number of cell towers (micro and macro) will continue to grow.
• There will be an increase in the number of connections between the edge (towers) and the core network.
• Customer retention and satisfaction scores will motivate carriers to meet current bandwidth needs and plan for projected capacity needs starting immediately.
• The focus on rational spending and faster ROI is greater than ever before.

Figure 3. The network will be heterogeneous and consist of a variety of components and technologies.

According to Becky Watson, program manager of communications infrastructure and convergence at Stratecast (a division of Frost & Sullivan), there is a clear need for additional capacity, especially in the backhaul network: “Operators around the world are leveraging the technology and infrastructure that they have today. The motivation behind that approach is driven by the desire to introduce new services to the market rapidly and meet customer demand cost effectively. The priority is providing adequate capacity today, not overbuilding a network to build a future proof network, at a cost that can be justified by a sound business case.” The solutions deployed to address the need for capacity in the backhaul network include fiber, copper and some wireless technology like microwave. Figure 4 compares these solutions.

Figure 4.

Several vendors are presenting a false choice by stating that microwave is a clear alternative for backhaul transport in mobile networks, while fiber will replace the small fraction of cell sites that continue to use copper. The facts show otherwise. Fiber and copper together account for over 40% of global backhaul transport solutions. In countries like the United States copper accounts for 60% of backhaul transport. In addition, the argument assumes that the problem lies with copper, not the technology used to leverage copper to deliver bandwidth. It’s important to note that copper-based solutions, referred to as “Ethernet over copper” or “Ethernet in The First Mile,” have been proven to provide 100 Mbps or more of bandwidth (speeds comparable to microwave and fiber) without the need for new construction. Legacy copper-based solutions like T1s and E1s can deliver speeds of only 1.5 Mbps or 2 Mbps -- completely inadequate for meeting current bandwidth demand.

In densely populated areas with a high-capacity macro cell, where the bandwidth required to meet customer demand is several gigabytes, fiber might be an obvious and cost-effective choice. When one or more of these parameters (like population density) change, the business case for fiber breaks down. For example, estimates for the cost of deploying fiber range from $50 thousand to $150 thousand per mile, or $30 thousand to $100 thousand per kilometer. When a micro cell has been deployed or the cell site serves a much smaller population, bandwidth needs are lower. Micro cell capacity requirements do not justify the costs of fiber deployments or microwave infrastructure as those costs can be several times the cost of the micro cell. Once again, Ethernet over copper-based solutions (delivering in excess of 100 Mbps over existing copper infrastructure) become the best option. It is, therefore, no surprise that carriers are re-evaluating every component of their network and finding technology that allows them to leverage their existing copper networks everywhere possible while continuing to adequately meet customer demand.

Connecting the Dots
Device manufacturers and application developers will continue to add new bandwidth-hogging capabilities to the plethora of connected devices. Granted, every user might not have a smartphone, and local networks around the world or even within a country will be heterogeneous. Additionally, every tower will not be a macro tower and every backhaul connection will not be fiber. Local market conditions, the strategy of the individual carrier and a rigorous cost-benefit analysis will determine the choice of the best solution. In all cases there will be more subscribers, more cell sites and more connections as a result of the proliferation of these cell sites.

The reality is simple. Carriers will need to adequately meet customer demand and plan for growth within the parameters of their business model. Carriers must focus on leveraging their existing infrastructure (like existing copper) and do a smart build, not a build that is a buzz word compliant without regard for cost and return on investment.

The philosophy of “build and plan later” has been replaced by a pragmatic approach that requires carriers to build capacity based on localized consumer demand and align capabilities they support with the cost of meeting those needs. The good news is: the solutions that meet demand (like Ethernet over Copper) within the economic constraints of the carriers are out there. Now it’s a matter of connecting the right customer with the right solution.

About the Author
Prakash Nagpal has spent more than 20 years in various engineering and marketing roles, working at companies that sell into mobile and wireline carriers who offer broadband and cloud-based services. As the Director of Carrier Marketing at Silicon Valley-based Actelis Networks, he is responsible for marketing the company’s Ethernet solutions to service providers and enterprises worldwide. For more information visit www.actelis.com.

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