The early bird may get the worm, but there may be a better worm just around the corner.

This is the situation the industry finds itself in, with WiMAX now in operation in some 350 locations worldwide, and a new technology, Long Term Evolution (LTE), coming up fast

The Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) technology has been described as a wireless Last Mile technology. Its transmission range is up to 30 miles. Its potential speed is formidable. It is certainly a contender for future cellphone use, and potential applications are manifold. It is described as a 4G cellular technology. *

LTE is also an emerging high-speed wireless technology. And yes, it is described as a 4G technology. Both WiMAX and LTE are technically feasible, and both are in operation (although WiMAX is months, perhaps years, ahead). When operational, each will more than quadruple existing wireless wide-area access speeds for users.

WiMAX and LTE are different so far as technical details are concerned, but they share many similarities. Are the two technologies competitors? Yes, of course. Might they eventually come together? They might, at least to a degree, but don't hold your breath. Working this out is a major challenge, but it involves horrendously complex techie-talk. What is of equal significance, though, is the broad applications of the technologies, and the politics behind them.

Some of the more salient facts are:

• Approximately 80% of the world's cellular systems are based on the GSM (Global System for Mobile) technology. Most of the remaining 20% are based on CDMA (Code Division Multiple Access) technology. In this country, Verizon is the leading service provider using CDMA, and AT&T is the leading provider using GSM.

• Sprint Nextel uses CDMA.

• The WiMAX technology was developed by Clearwire, a company formed by Craig McGaw (a pioneer in the cell phone industry).

• Sprint Nextel owns much of the spectrum applicable to WiMAX.

• Clearwire and Sprint Nextel have teamed up, and both are vigorously promoting WiMAX.

• WiMAX is up and running in 350 locations worldwide, and is expected to reach 120 million to 140 million people in the U.S. by the end of 2010.

• WiMAX standards are being handled by the IEEE 802.16 committee.

• LTE standards are being handled by 3GPP (Third Generation Partnership Project), a trade group. Work on these standards began in 1994.

• LTE standards are more akin to GSM than to CDMA.

• Verizon plans to start commercial operation of LTE in 2010. AT&T's program will be a couple of years behind.

Now let's take a look at the technical capabilities of the two systems.

Range
WiMAX is touted as being capable of operating at a distance of 30 miles. But not necessarily. If we are talking line of sight, a situation where a fixed dish antenna points directly at the WiMAX tower, then this is a pretty accurate answer. If, on the other hand, the receiving antenna is located indoors, and is associated with your personal local area network, that's another story. A lower frequency must be used to bend around the corners and to penetrate walls, and the resultant range is only about 4 to 6 miles. This provides coverage of about 25 square miles -- about the same as for a cellphone antenna.

The proponents of LTE are no clearer so far as range is concerned. It would seem that the optimal LTE cell is around 3.1 miles wide, but can be expanded to 18 miles with "reasonable" performance.

Speed
It should be no surprise that as distance separating transmitter and receiver goes up, bit error rate goes up -- and this results in reduced throughput. WiMAX is expecting 70 Mbps, both upstream and downstream. Actual speeds of 10 Mbps are achievable at 10 km distances.

The goal of LTE is to provide speeds of 100 Mbps downstream and 50 Mbps upstream. Future developments could yield peak throughout on the order of 300 Mbps

Standards Body
The specifications pertaining to WiMAX are developed by an IEEE committee, specifically IEEE 802.16. The LTE standards are being developed by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), an industry trade group

Modulation Technology
The latest version of LTE uses Scalable Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access (SOFDMA) for the downlink, and a pre-coded version of OFDM called Single Carrier Frequency Division Multiple Access (SC-FDMA) for the uplink.

WiMAX uses SOFDMA, both up and down.

Frequency
The WiMAX Forum has settled on 3 licensed spectrum profiles: 2.3 GHz, 2.5 GHz, and 3.5 GHz. In the U.S. the biggest segment available is around 2.5 GHz, and is already assigned, primarily to Sprint Nextel and Clearwire.
LTE operates in the 700 MHz band

U.S. Carriers and Investors
WiMAX's primary supporters are Sprint Nextel and Clearwire. Investors in the WiMAX approach are Google, Intel and 3 cable companies.

The two major U.S. carriers – AT&T and Verizon – are both in the LTE camp.

Clearly, the situation is far from clear. WiMAX has a head start. LTE pertains most closely to GSM, the system used by most cellphone carriers in the world. Billions of dollars have been spent by carriers securing spectrum to enable one system or the other to be the preferred high speed wireless technology. Likely there will not be one, and only one, winner. Likely both will survive; the question is the degree of success.

Design and development and testing are proceeding. Only time will tell who is the winner.

Let the battle begin.

Endnote
* The differences between 2G, 3G, and 4G technologies are not clear cut. The "G" stands for "generation," and one might think that a simple sentence or so could describe the differences. This is not the case. There are hundreds of differences, most so couched in buzzwords and alphabet soup that even trained telecommunications engineers find it challenging.

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