A report from research firm IDC predicts the global mobile industry will remain relatively unscathed - and could even benefit from the economic turmoil across the world.

The wireless industry has become the dominant driver of the global telecommunications industry and serves almost half of the world’s population, according to the report IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Outlook: The Global Current Economic Downturn: Minor Impediment on the Road to Continued Growth? led by IDC analyst Shiv K. Bakhshi, Ph.D.

At the end of 2008, there were 3.6 billion wireless subscriptions in the $700 billion mobile industry, but by 2012, those numbers are expected to grow to $855 billion among 4.9 billion subscriptions, according to the study.

“Because mobile is a critical infrastructure of the world, it is going to fare in this downturn a little better,” Bakhshi said. “There is going to be a minor impediment on the road to continued growth.”

However, certain segments of the market will suffer more than others, and the rollout of wireless technologies in developed countries will follow a different trajectory than growth in developing markets, according to the study.

Nonetheless, the industry will likely experience a lag in sales for network infrastructure, mobile devices, chipsets, and software.

For network infrastructure, the market is forecast to decline to $50.7 billion this year compared with $51.2 billion in 2008, according to the study. In the next 4 years, spending will hover around the $50 billion mark.

Bright points include the development of 3G networks in China and India. China recently issued 3G licenses, and India is on the verge of allocating spectrum for 3G.

And LTE will figure prominently in the equation as Verizon Wireless in the U.S. and NTT DoCoMo in Japan look toward aggressive rollout schedules. Indeed, Verizon Wireless recently announced its LTE vendors (Alcatel-Lucent and L.M. Ericsson) and plans to launch commercial LTE service in 2010.

With developed countries investing in 3G and 4G networks, WiMAX will be a strong player in developing countries. According to the study, WiMAX will come of age this year and will be popular in emerging markets such as India, where Internet access is hobbled by lack of wireline broadband infrastructure. In developed markets, WiMAX will be viable in rural areas that don’t have broadband access or are underserved.

According to the study, WiMAX will gain some traction in the U.S. as Clearwire Corp. “regroups to take clear control of the Xohm initiative and refocuses itself on building out its network.”

Sprint Nextel Corp. launched Xohm late last year in Baltimore; through its new joint partnership with Sprint Nextel, Clearwire has re-branded the WiMAX offering as “Clear” and has expanded it to Portland.

Source: Bakhshi, Ph.D., Shiv K.; Delaney, John; Munroe, Courtney. IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Outlook: The Global Current Economic Downturn: Minor Impediment on the Road to Continued Growth? February 2009, Doc #216881, IDC Insight, IDC. March 18, 2009. http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=216881

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